What’s Happening Now
- Federal incentives ended on 30 September 2025, under the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” a comprehensive legislation that aimed to boost the EV market by providing up to $7,500 in purchase credits and $4,000 for used EVs. These credits had been critical in narrowing the price gap between EVs (average $57,000) and gas cars (average $48,000).
- Automakers front-loaded sales before the deadline, creating a boom-bust cycle: September saw record EV sales, but analysts expect a steep drop through Q4 and into 2026. The decisions and actions of automakers have a significant Impact on the market, and their strategies are crucial in shaping the future of the EV industry. Market share could fall from 10% to around 8% next year.
- Inventory glut: Ford and GM have thousands of EVs sitting on lots. Both tried to extend tax-credit benefits through leasing workarounds, but scrapped those plans after political backlash. Now they’re offering deep discounts and 0% financing to move stock.
- Production pullbacks: GM took a $1.6 billion hit to scale back EV capacity and delay the introduction of new models. Ford postponed its next-gen EV truck and van programs. Stellantis canceled its full-size electric pickup and shifted focus to hybrids.
Consumer Sentiment
- Interest is sliding fast. AAA’s 2025 survey shows only 16% of Americans are likely to buy an EV, the lowest since 2019. The sentiment of consumers plays a pivotal role in the market, and their concerns, including battery repair costs (62%), high purchase prices (59%), a lack of charging stations (56%), and range anxiety (55%), are shaping the current state of the EV industry.
- Gallup reports just 8% are seriously considering an EV, down from 12% in 2023. Hybrids are gaining favor as a “middle ground.”
- Political polarization plays a role: Pew finds only 18% of Republicans would consider an EV versus 48% of Democrats.
Why the Glut?
- Automakers ramped up production, expecting strong growth under Biden-era policies. When incentives vanished and emissions rules were relaxed, those forecasts collapsed.
- Charging infrastructure remains patchy and unreliable—Harvard research shows U.S. chargers are only 78% reliable, fueling “charge anxiety.”
- EVs still cost $9,000 more than gas cars on average, even as battery prices fall toward $100/kWh.
Global Contrast
- China: EV sales surged to 9 million YTD, with BYD offering models under $10,000 and five-minute charging tech. Exports doubled in September.
- Europe: Incentives and strict emissions rules keep demand strong; EV share could surpass 50% by 2032.
- U.S.: Adoption now projected to hit 50% by 2039—five years later than previous forecasts.
Bottom Line
The U.S. EV market is entering a multi-year correction:
- Expect discount wars and more hybrid launches.
- The used EV market is expected to grow as lease returns flood the inventory.
- The long-term outlook still points to electrification, but without policy support, the transition will be slower and more complicated.